Enduring Superabundance

In this course, we focused on an ancient source of despair that continues to resonate today—the fear of overpopulation and the exhaustion of natural resources. This fear was valid for thousands of years, and Thomas Malthus, its most prominent proponent, deserves credit for being a thorough historian. However, Malthus penned his influential thesis—that human population grows geometrically while food production can only grow arithmetically—just as the world was beginning to undergo a fundamental transformation.

In the late 18th century, Western European nations and their colonial offshoots began to break free from the Malthusian trap. Mortality rates declined, incomes rose, and nutrition improved, leading to a better quality of life. Over time, much of the rest of the world followed suit, adopting, albeit imperfectly, liberal institutions that encouraged open inquiry, science, and technology.

By 1800, the Earth’s population was just 1 billion; by 2022, it had grown to 8 billion. About five years ago, Gale and I embarked on a research journey that led to the publication of Superabundance: The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet. In our work, we introduced the Simon Abundance Index, measuring the availability of resources through the lens of hourly wages, or “time prices.”

Julian Simon, a Cornucopian thinker, argued that scarcity is relative to our income. If wages rise while the price of a commodity remains constant, it becomes more abundant. Our research found that, on average, personal resource abundance grew by 3% annually, doubling every two decades. Population resource abundance grew even faster, at 4% per year, doubling every 16 years. Our conclusion: every additional human being contributes value by generating ideas that lead to innovations, productivity gains, and higher living standards.

The Pillars of Superabundance

Superabundance hinges on two core components:

1. People: Rational and knowledgeable individuals.
2. Freedom: The liberty to think, speak, publish, and collaborate.

With more people and greater freedom, the likelihood of generating solutions to present and future challenges increases. Our ability to address issues such as climate change, resource scarcity, and technological advancement depends on these factors.

Challenges to Superabundance

Despite these successes, several challenges threaten the continuation of superabundance:

1. Negativity Bias:

• Our brains are wired to prioritize threats over opportunities, making us susceptible to apocalyptic predictions. Media outlets exploit this bias by emphasizing negative news, skewing public perception of reality.

1. Environmental Panic and Population Decline:

• The pervasive fear of climate catastrophe discourages procreation and economic development. A declining population threatens innovation, growth, and fiscal stability.

1. Censorship and Freedom of Thought:

• Freedom of speech is essential for intellectual progress. Restrictions on dialogue hinder our ability to tackle complex challenges and innovate.

1. Market Restrictions:

• Free markets facilitate innovation and economic growth. Overregulation stifles creativity and prevents valuable ideas from reaching fruition.

Psychological Barriers to Progress

Humans tend to overestimate risks and underestimate progress due to several cognitive biases:

• Availability Heuristic: We judge probabilities based on memorable events, leading us to overestimate the likelihood of disasters.
• Loss Aversion: People fear losses more than they value equivalent gains.
• End-of-History Illusion: We assume future progress will be less significant than past advancements.

Capitalism and Human Nature

Despite capitalism’s unparalleled success in creating wealth and improving living standards, it faces constant opposition due to deep-rooted human tendencies toward:

• Tribalism: Small-group cooperation often conflicts with large-scale market dynamics.
• Egalitarianism: People resent wealth inequality, even when it results from innovation and productivity.
• Zero-Sum Thinking: Many perceive economic growth as a win-lose proposition rather than a win-win scenario.

The Role of Knowledge and Adaptation

Humans thrive through cooperation and knowledge-sharing. The key to sustaining progress lies in embracing evidence-based optimism and continuing to expand freedom and markets. History demonstrates that civilizations can decline, but they can also recover if they re-embrace the values that foster progress.

Conclusion

As we conclude this course, remember that the human mind tends to focus on fear and scarcity. Recognizing this bias is crucial to fostering rational optimism and embracing the potential for continued superabundance. With free people generating ideas and testing them in the marketplace, we can address future challenges and ensure human flourishing.

Thank you for your engagement and curiosity throughout this course.